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Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was a popular dynasty pick as a rookie. Regarded my many as the No. 2 quarterback in last year's class, he wound up being the fourth QB drafted after Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance.
Fields started 10 games as a rookie, completing 58.9% of his passes for 1,870 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was the overall QB31 in fantasy. It's hard to slice 2021 as a positive for Fields from a fantasy perspective.
So, what's Fields' dynasty value heading into 2022? Let's investigate that.
Despite his struggles, it's hard to find any dynasty rankings that don't have Fields in the 10-15 range. Why? Because youth is important to dynasty rankers — sometimes too important, but that's a conversation for a different time. What's important here is that dynasty rankings are basically overlooking Fields overall work last year and are still projecting him to be good for a number of reasons.
One, of course, is that he's a young quarterback who was a first-round pick. Giving up on a QB after one year is usually bad practice. Sure, there are the Josh Rosens of the world, but Josh Allen was bad as a rookie. Patrick Mahomes didn't play as a rookie until Week 17. Peyton Manning was extremely bad in his first year.
Another sign of optimism is that before he was injured and missed the last three weeks, Fields was trending up. In three of his last four starts, he threw for 224 or more yards, and in the other he was knocked out of the game after 30 snaps (though wasn't on track to throw for 200 yards). Fields was on the upswing as the season went on. If he's on the field for those final three games, there's a good chance that he's entering 2022 with his redraft stock up in the same area as his dynasty stock.
Fields should be better in 2022. Bringing Luke Getsy in from Green Bay to be the offensive coordinator should help the Bears passing game. Just being a year older and more experienced helps too. What is concerning though is that for Fields to take a big leap this year, he probably needs a good supporting cast around him. And that...well, that isn't what the Bears have.
The team's free agency acquisitions were Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown, who will try to replace Allen Robinson. I can't tell the future, but if there was a betting option for "will Pringle and St. Brown be even half as impactful as Robinson," then I would bet no.
As for the draft, the team waited until the third round to take a receiver, grabbing Velus Jones Jr. That felt like a reach. Jones is a slot receiver who can be used on some gadget plays, but struggles to run his routes and is already going to be 25 for his rookie year. That's concerning.
All that lowers the upside for Fields heading into the 2022 season. That uncertainty about who he throws the ball to hurts him beyond 2022 as well.
Alright, so Fields should be on the upswing, and his dynasty rankings reflect that. What's that mean from a practical perspective? Has he risen too much? Good question.
Fields' dynasty cost at this point has the Young Quarterback Tax baked into it. He's ranked between 10 and 15, so let's just split the difference and call him the dynasty QB13.
For what he's done and for what he has around him, I personally see there being a little too much uncertainty. When I think about dynasty, I don't take the approach that says this player will still be on my team in six years so I need to pay up for him. I know how volatile the NFL is. Planning for the future for me means planning for 2023 and 2024, not for 2025 or 2026. I drafted Terrelle Pryor in a startup draft once in, like, the fourth round. I know that sometimes things don't work out and that drafting/trading solely on "this guy is young and could be good" won't work out.
For that reason, I'm of two minds with Fields. One is that I do think he works out. He's going to be a quality NFL quarterback. He's someone I would want on my dynasty team in four or five years over a bunch of QBs who are in the league now, because he'll be better than them then. However, that's looking really far ahead.
If I'm thinking of my dynasty team for 2022, 2023 and even 2024, then I think Fields is overvalued. The Bears just haven't put the team around him for him to be a high-value fantasy player. I see Fields ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers and I think "really?" Rodgers will be better than Fields for at least the next two or three years. Derek Carr will probably be more productive over that span.
For that reason, I think this is the time to sell on Fields if you can find a QB-needy team. I'm a big fan of shipping off second round picks for guys in the Kirk Cousins/Ryan Tannehill/Matt Ryan tier in a Superflex league and then trading Fields for help at other positions, just because I don't think his overall ceiling is going to be high enough in the near-term to justify holding him while you can still net some good assets.
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